Ante-post betting formula

There are lots of statistical methods, which can help you calculate the chance of a team wins its next match. Paul Steele has described lots of them in his book, called “Profitable football betting”. There are plenty of options you can choose from, but the most important thing is to determine which factors are the main, when it’s up to putting your money on a betting slip.

My strategy is way more different, as I am a fan of the ante-post betting. So, I have made a formula to calculate the teams’ chance for a final position in the league table. The main factors for reaching a good position in the league table are: the number of points per game; the number of goals, scored by the team per match on average; the average possession of the ball (which must be converted from a percentage into a number); the average accurate passing; the total shots per game; the successful tackles; the dribbles. We should also subtract the average number of the conceded goals. The result of all these factors is going to be an index. We have to find such an index for all the teams in the division.

For example, let’s take a look at The Premier League. This is the situation after the first 17 rounds:

1. Chelsea – 43 p.
2. Liverpool – 37 p.
3. Manchester City – 36 p.
4. Arsenal – 34 p.
5. Tottenham Hotspur – 33 p.
6. Manchester United – 30 p.
7. Southampton – 24 p.
8. West Bromwich Albion – 23 p.
9. Everton – 23 p.
10. AFC Bournemouth – 21 p.
11. Stoke City – 21 p.
12. Watford – 21 p.
13. West Ham United – 19 p.
14. Middlesbrough – 18 p.
15. Leicester City – 17 p.
16. Burnley – 17 p.
17. Crystal Palace – 15 p.
18. Sunderland – 14 p.
19. Swansea City – 12 p.
20. Hull City – 12 p.

Remember, you are the person, who must decide which factor is the most important! You can multiply by a coefficient the most important one, and can divide into a number the less important factors. In my opinion the possession of the ball and the average number of shots are crucial for winning of a game, that’s why I have decided to boost them by a coefficient!

And after all the calculations, this is how will look like the standings in The Premier League in the end of the season:

1. Chelsea – 13,173 (index)
2. Liverpool – 12,7802
3. Manchester City – 12,2495
4. Tottenham Hotspur – 11,9298
5. Arsenal – 11,9004
6. Manchester United – 10,9290
7. Southampton – 9,7884
8. Everton – 9,3871
9. AFC Bournemouth – 8,6858
10. Stoke City – 8,5621
11. Middlesbrough – 8,3676.
12. West Bromwich Albion – 8,3661
13. Crystal Palace – 8,2571
14. Watford – 7,9160
15. West Ham United – 7,8859
16. Leicester City – 7,4172
17. Swansea City – 6,9873
18. Sunderland – 6,6142
19. Burnley – 6,5450
20. Hull City – 6,3601

At both ends, there is no guarantee that the table will look like this, because there are factors like injuries and bad luck, we don’t take under consideration. So, when you put your ante-post bets, you can combine it with sports arbitrage! For instance, if you are not sure that Chelsea are going to win the league, you can put money on both Chelsea and Liverpool! Of course, you should carefully calculate the amounts, in order to secure your profit!